Barnhardt.biz - Commodity Brokerage

(I didn't write this, but it is FANTASTIC!!)

Dear Children,

Today, the day after perhaps the most significant presidential election of our Nation's history, your mom and I wanted to share some thoughts with you.

We know that you are adults now; you are very bright, and perfectly capable of making your own decisions. Long gone are the days when your mom's and my political opinions impacted your own. I want you to know that I respect each of you and your ability to draw the best conclusion based on the facts as you understand them, and I know that you each cast your vote according to your conscience.

As a demonstration of our deep respect for your opinions, we have decided that because you have clearly supported Obama you will henceforth be removed from our will. This will allow us to re-direct those funds to others in the country who are more in need. I would never want to insult you by suggesting that you would feel right accepting an inheritance when there are so many who have less than you. Since we are apparently not capable of making the decision regarding the redistribution of that wealth, we will send your portion of our estate to the government so that they can determine the most worthy recipients.

I know you will all be pleased with this decision.

Love,
Mom and Dad

The Dow opened higher and so have the cattle. Man, my job is really easy lately. Last week's cash trade was $92-$93, which was considered disappointing. But, you know, "disappointing" is all relative to one's marketing skill. Let's explore that . . .

"DISAPPOINTING"

SELL 1250# fat heifers @ $93.00
BUY 677# top-quality heifers at Woodward, OK @ $92.74
Return on the Gain = $0.93 per pound
LOSS per head with a $1.00 cost of gain = ($40.11)

Disappointing? You bet. But the disappointment is in the individual who made this trade - NOT in the market itself. The market is offering opportunity after opportunity to capture profit. The trouble is, most folks have ZERO marketing skill, and thus keep making uninformed, mathmatically unjustifiable trades, and then try to lay the blame off on the market. Weak. I had a buddy attend a meeting where one of the break-out sessions was a "2009 market outlook". You know what I'm talking about. Well, the speaker told the crowd that they should plan on "just surviving 2009". Horse excrement!!! If you go to some deal like that, and you hear some analyst say some nonsense like that, STAND UP AND CALL HIM OUT! The only way someone could say something like that is if they have ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY NO CLUE WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. And then, how dare they stand up in front of a roomful of people and run their mouth? If you don't know what you are doing, sit down, shut up, and let someone who DOES know what they are talking about speak. Humble yourself and receive instruction. (Yes, I know it is just SLIGHTLY ironic that I am admonishing others to be humble.)

Now, the opposite of disappoint is DELIGHT, so here you go:

"DELIGHTFUL"

SELL 1250# fat heifers @ $92.00
BUY 950# top-quality heifers at Woodward, OK @ $83.50
Return on the Gain = $1.19 per pound
PROFIT per head with a $1.05 cost of gain = $42.00

Please note that I dropped the fat sale price a buck and increased the cost of gain by a nickel. Delightful!

I just have to say that I REALLY hope Obama picks Billary Clinton as Secretary of State. Reason #1: Can you imagine the fighting that will go between the Clintons and Obama as Billary tries to run the show, viewing themselves as the "President Behind-the-Scenes"? Oh, man. What a car-wreck waiting to happen. Reason #2: Better to have Billary as Secretary of State for four years than a Supreme Court Justice for life. Shudder.

Finally, a new reader emailed last night wondering about the Jukebox. So, a special Tuesday Jukebox so that fellow can see how it works. As always, the Jukebox only works with Microsoft Internet Explorer browser. It does not work if you're using Firefox. Sorry. Look for the link to turn the Jukebox on at the very top of the Blog. Today's tune is Don Gibson's classic "Who Cares For Me". Enjoy.

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

We're softer again this morning as the Dow is pulling back from yesterday's huge recovery into the close. Cash bids in the South were $92-wouldya take $93. Offers were $95 looking for $94 trade.

Gas is $1.80 here in Denver. That's pretty amazing. The odd thing is, I have yet to see a single huge headline blaring that gas is under $2.00 anywhere in the media. I wonder why?

We received our first legitimate snowfall of the year last night. This is the latest first snow I can remember since moving out here in 1997. That settles it. Global warming must be real. That's all the evidence needed. Anyone who disagrees is just stupid and deluded.

Just so you know, eight-weight heifers traded at $67.50 at Marshall, Virginia on Tuesday. Just sayin'.

Today's Jukebox is "Honky Tonk Man" by Johnny Horton, which asks the timeless question, "Hey hey Mama, can your Daddy come home?" Generally, if one need ASK the question, the answer is usually "no".

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Barnhardt's Conjecture states that the amount of time required to get caught up from being out of the office is equal to the square of the number of days you are out. So,

Out 1 day, 1 X 1 = 1. Not too bad.
Out 2 days, 2 X 2 = 4. Ouch.
Out 3 days, 3 X 3 = 9. Cry Uncle and make it stop.
Out 4 days, 4 X 4 = 16. AAARRRGGGHHH!!

So, apologies for that. If you want to know what the cattle markets have been doing in general, just look at a chart of the Dow. It really is that simple. Sure enough, the Dow is down 300 right now, ducking its head under 8000, and the cattle are down a buck. If the Dow stages a recovery, I reckon we'll stage a recovery too.

But, on the the truly important stuff - MAKING MONEY!!

SELL 1300# fat steers @ $92
BUY 675# top-quality steers @ $85 at Durant, OK on Tuesday.
Return on the gain = $1.00 per pound.
Excess profit per head with a $0.95 cost of gain = $28.75

compare that to this NOT SO FUN WITH MATH:

SELL 1300# fat steers @ $92.00
BUY 682# top-quality steers at OKC on Monday at $102.39
Return on the gain = $0.81 per pound
LOSS per head with a $0.95 cost of gain = ($86.52)

Let's see . . . an $86 per head loss versus a $28 per head profit. Hmm. That's an absolute spread of $114 per head. Not exactly chump change. Feedlots that are going broke in this market are doing so by their own willful ignorance. Period. The market is FANTASTIC and PROFIT-LADEN, and has been all along. Whining and complaining WILL NOT BE TOLERATED. Those feedlots that choose to cling to the massive failure that is the conventional, forecasting-based paradigm deserve to fail. By all means, if you insist upon failing, hurry up and do it so that some of my people can buy your place and ensure the long-term survival of the North American cattle industry. I literally know 11-year-old girls that can run circles around "seasoned" feedyard managers. I'm dead serious.

Luckily, failure isn't your destiny, Cowboy. See my calendar page. Come up to Colby, KS, if for no other reason than to bask in the radiance of my gentle, demure sweetness for two days. Snicker, snicker.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Okay, the earth still spins so we'll keep spinning too. First, before I forget, I will be out tomorrow and Friday as I am heading down to Dallas for Bud & Eunice Williams' big three day event this weekend. I have been looking forward to this for months! It will be great to get my batteries recharged, and I'm sure Bud will have some great remarks about the election and life in general. I look forward to seeing many of you there as well. Nycki returns from Hawaii today and will be here in my absence.

The markets have opened modestly lower. Cash offers are at $95, and an advance from last week's $92 cash trade is expected. Here's a stocker FUN WITH MATH and a feedlot FUN WITH MATH to tide you over:

ERICSON, NE Saturday, November 1st:

SELL 859# top-quality steers @ $105.13
BUY 564# 1-2 steers @ $97.66
Return on the gain = $1.19
Excess profit per head with a $1.00 cost of gain = $56.05

Now, on the feedlot side of this wonderful business:

SELL 1200# fat heifers @ $90.00
BUY 960# top-quality heifers at OKC on Monday @ $84.25
Return on the gain = $1.13 per pound
Excess profit per head with a $1.00 cost of gain = $31.20

As a pre-emptive admonition, you may NOT use the threat of higher marginal tax rates as an excuse to not make money. Don't even try to pull that garbage with me.

Finally, here is a lovely picture, taken by my sister-in-law at Emporia, KS on Monday. I thought these days were permanently behind us, never to be seen again. Just one last time, let me say, "It's Bush's fault!"

I feel a bit like I did on 9/11, except we have done this to ourselves - there is no outside enemy to blame. If one looks back at history - heck, just RECENT history, like the 20th century, one will see that the bulk of the carnage was not the result of aggression between nations (although we did have that - no question). No, the bulk of the carnage was perpetrated by leftist governments against their own people. Please reference the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, Communist China, Cambodia, North Vietnam, North Korea and large swaths of Africa. You're looking at a quarter of a billion souls that were either slaughtered or intentionally starved to death, easily.

If you're thinking, "Oh, that could NEVER happen here", please remember that we're already 1/5th of the way there. We have slaughtered 50 million souls since 1973 in this country, and now, it appears there is no end in sight. It wouldn't be much of a step to go from murdering inconvenient pre-born babies to inconvenient birthed children and adults. Really, the only difference is whether or not you need to plug your ears to block out the sound of the screams.

So, there is only one thing to do. Pray. Pray for President-elect Obama. Pray for his conversion. Pray for ALL of our leaders. Pray for the conversion of this entire nation. Pray, pray, pray.

To get us started, I have loaded the Jukebox with the penitential prayer par excellence - the Kyrie Eleison. For those of you who aren't Catholic, Kyrie Eleison is Greek for "Lord, Have Mercy". This is from Mozart's Mass in C Minor. The only words being sung are:

Kyrie Eleison (Lord, Have Mercy)
Christe Eleison (Christ, Have Mercy)
Kyrie Eleison (Lord, Have Mercy)

That pretty much sums it up.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Cut and paste this URL into your address bar:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/11/you_and_i_have_a_rendezvous_wi.asp

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Dear friends, YOU are the cause of the explosion in health care costs. If you would just stop producing food, no one would be obese or get diabetes, or have strokes or heart attacks. You are all so SELFISH!

Love,
Dear Leader

Here's the URL.

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/10/23/the_full_obama_interview/

Huge snifter-clink to Kit Pharo for this. I know most of you already get Kit's emails, but for the scattered handful who do not, here you go . . .

THE TEN CANNOTS
by William Boetcker (1873-1962)

1. You cannot bring prosperity by discouraging thrift.

2. You cannot help small men by tearing down big men.

3. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

4. You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.

5. You cannot help the poor man by destroying the rich.

6. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than your income.

7. You cannot further brotherhood of men by inciting class hatred.

8. You cannot establish security on borrowed money.

9. You cannot build character and courage by taking away man's initiative and independence.

10. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves.

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Just keep talking, Barry. He just said that wanting lower taxes is "making a virtue out of selfishness". You've GOT to be kidding me. Link below.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/obamas-new-atta.html

Let's see, wanting to keep MY money that I EARNED is "selfish", but ripping a baby limb from limb because it would cost MONEY to keep and raise isn't.

Maybe if we started referring to babies as "sex taxes" these people would get it. Who am I kidding. They'll never get it. It's all part and parcel of the Marxist Culture of Death.

Busy, busy! And Nycki is in Hawaii on a week-long vacation (Bum!) so I apologize if you are one of the calls that I have missed. Just keep a dingling those digits if I don't grab you right away. Apologies.

Halloween. I'm not a fan. I'm most especially not a fan of dark costumes, such as devils, witches, vampires, ghosts, zombies, werewolves and the like. Evil is very real, and anything that glorifies it or makes light of it, particularly in the minds of children, is playing right into the Enemy's hands. The Devil's most fruitful playground is in the hearts and minds of those people who do not believe that he exists.

Today's Jukebox is Possum's "The Race Is On" because it is. Don't believe these polls showing Obama wildly ahead. Most people are literally SCARED to tell a pollster that they are voting for McCain because they are afraid they will be harassed or tagged a racist. Welcome to the wonderful world of the far left. Given that McCain is polling only a couple of points behind Dear Leader, we could see a McCain landslide when people actually vote their conscience. The Race Is On.

Here's a FUN WITH MATH that will knock your knickers off:

St. Joseph, MO, Wednesday:

SELL 776# top-quality steers @ $104.57
BUY 644# top-quality steer calves @ $92.00
Return on the Gain = $1.66 per pound
Excess profit per head with a $1.25 cost of gain = $54.12 per head.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Go watch the clip on YouTube. Cut and paste the URL into your address bar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s

This is utterly chilling. DIRECT analogues to this "Civilian National Security Force" would be the Gestapo or SS in Nazi Germany and Soviet NKVD. The theory is that once formed, this "Civilian National Security Force" would be categorized as "militia". It would be armed, and then the argument would be made that the second amendment does not apply to private citizens, only regulated civilian militias. And look, we have a regulated civilian militia right here . . . Now be a good little economic unit and turn in your firearms lest we consider you an enemy of the collective peace.

Quoting a little Star Wars now,

"This is how liberty dies -- with thunderous applause."

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

(I didn't write this - someone emailed it to me, but I think it is fantastic!)

Today on my way to lunch I passed a homeless guy with a sign that read "Vote Obama, I need the money." I laughed.

Once in the restaurant my server had on an "Obama 08" tie, again I laughed as he had given away his political preference--just imagine the coincidence.

When the bill came I decided not to tip the server and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed more in need--the homeless guy outside. The server angrily stormed from my sight.

I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him to thank the server inside as I had decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.

At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn even though the actual recipient "deserved" the money more.

I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

We are up across the board in fats, feeders and grains. The Dow is only up 42 (or as we now call it, "steady"), so there must be some outside bullish commodity sentiment at work so far today.

I have a cattle spread that I like speculatively this morning. Call or email if you're interested. I also still like long corn option packages. Most of what I'm looking at is in the July or Dec '09, so we're talking longer-term plays in the corn, either on the speculative side or on the hedge side.

Today is my thirty-second birthday, and in keeping with tradition, I have loaded the Jukebox with one of my favorite songs, "Will There Be Any Stars In My Crown" performed by Alison Krauss and the Cox Family. Enjoy!

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

I'm off to Albuquerque in a few minutes, but wanted to check in. Cattle and feeders have reversed and turned lower after a strong opening following the Dow. Cash trade is pretty much done at mostly $91 in the South, and $89-$91 in the Northern tier.

Here's a little FUN WITH MATH Roswell-style.

SELL 1175# fat heifers @ $89.00
BUY 808# top-quality steers (calves) at Roswell at $75.34
Return on the gain = $1.19 per pound
Excess profit per head with a $1.10 cost of gain = $33.03

Let me reiterate, a $1.10 cost of gain, and you're going from heifers to steers. Nine out of ten Little Green Men agree, this is a great trade!

You Jukebox for tomorrow and Saturday will be the song that started the whole Jukebox phenomenon. It is Mr. Hank Snow singing "It Don't Hurt Anymore". Truer words were never spoken. Sing it, Hank.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

A new customer inadvertantly left ONE letter off of his email address when filling out his online account forms last week. Well, all kinds of "new account" emails from me starting flowing into the email box of a lady in the same state whose husband has a history of failing to comprehend the solemnity and exclusivity of his marriage vows. Enough said.

Well, this poor lady thought that her husband was having an affair with me. Oh dear.

So, nice lady in the Southeast U.S., please be assured that I'm not having an affair with your husband, and we're all praying for you, your husband, and a renewal of your marriage. Sorry you had to be put through the wringer like that.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

It's a relatively quiet day. Fats are up 25-50, feeders are mixed, corn is down 8. The Dow is down 150 right now. I'm getting ready for the Bud Williams Marketing School in Albuquerque this Friday and Saturday. I still have seats, so if you want to enroll and have your business life changed forever, you know the drill.

I'm sure all the FWM addicts out there are just about to collapse, so, here you go. Caution: this is some POTENT stuff.

SELL 723# heifers at Salina, KS last Thursday at $90.94
BUY 700# heifers at Abingdon, Virginia last Friday at $68.00.
Gross dollar spread is $181.50 per head
Knock SIXTY-FIVE percent off of that spread to account for shipping and every other possible thing a person would want to whine about and you're still $63.52 per head to the good.

Virginia. Latitude-wise, Abingdon would be just slightly North of Tulsa. You heard it here first. Please try not to trample one another.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

This is a bit off-the beaten path, but hey, anything I can do to help a neighbor, right?

As many of you know, my brother and sister-in-law live in Lebo, Kansas, which is in Coffey County. They have gotten involved with the community, which is a very good thing. Lebo is a very nice town. Well, the Lebo Pride Committee, which is a volunteer, non-profit group that organizes community activities, raises money for beautification projects and signs, etc. is putting on a fund-raising raffle. They are raffling off a brand new 2008 Harley Davidson Dyna Lowrider Limited Edition 105th Anniversary Motorcycle. Picture below. It is a fine-looking Hog, isn't it?

Long story short, the raffle sales in the local area have not been as brisk as hoped. In fact, they haven't even covered the purchase price of the bike. So . . . if you like motorcycles, and would like to support a fine rural community, I have just the raffle for you! They are selling a maximum of 3000 tickets, so we're not talking Powerball odds here.

Tickets are $20 each or 6 for $100.

To purchase tickets call

Jack Ables at Lebo Lumber (620) 256-6722

Janet Tastove at Grangers' Coop (620) 256-6233

The drawing will be held December 13, 2008.

The winner will be notified and is responsible for pickup of the motorcycle in Lebo, KS. Winner is responsible for tags and taxes.

It every person who reads this blog buys a ticket, Lebo could buy an NFL franchise, so let's git 'er done! It will be the coolest thing if one of you win the bike. Seriously.

Thanks for helping out a good cause.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

It is another wide-range day in the stock market. The Dow is down 70, some 300+ points off of its low. Cattle have been on both sides of unchanged. Grains are down a bit.

I just got an email from a friend in OK. He bought 1040# 1-2 black heifers at $69.40. Cattle have traded this week in a range of $87-$91. Let's say this guy sold fat heifers for $85 (not that he did, I'm just handicapping) this week and had a $1.30 close-out cost of gain . . .

SELL 1250# fat heifers @ $85.00
BUY 1040# 1-2 black heifers @ $69.40
Return on the gain = $1.62
Excess profit per head with a $1.30 cost of gain = $67.20

This is the best market we'll see for a very, very long time. Savor it.

I posted this on the BudWilliamsMarketing.com blog, but forgot to post it here. My dear friends, Richard McConnell and Tina Williams, have a low-stress stockhandling DVD, produced by the Farm Animal Council of Saskatchewan. They have video clips available for viewing on their website, www.handnhandlivestocksolutions.com . Be sure to check it out!! GREAT stuff and very well done (of course!).

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

I'm truly giddy. This is SOOOO good. The Dow is up 900 right at this moment. Personal disclosure: I bought a CASH S&P position this morning. Not futures - I don't trade futures, of course. But, I did buy cash SPYders. Hee hee. I couldn't resist!

Cattle and feeders were up hard today, and were limit-up early on. They finished "only" 175 higher. Profit is EVERYWHERE. An attendee at this weekend's Bud Williams Marketing School in Cheyenne attended a sale in NE Colorado late last week and personally witnessed good eight-weight steers sell for $72.00. I'm seeing ALL KINDS of cattle trade with an "8" in front of them today.

The worst thing a person could do in this market is sell cattle and NOT BUY ANY CATTLE BACK. Sadly, that is exactly what a lot of people are doing, both in the cash market and on paper (hint, hint!!). Think about it: yes, if you sell into a low market today you also have the joy and priveledge of BUYING IN A LOW MARKET. The "low sell" (boo hoo) and the "low buy" (yipee!) cancel each other out and what you're left with is the MARGIN, which is potentially FANTASTIC right now.

On the other side, when the market is high and people are all excited and euphoric, you get to sell into a high market (yipee!), but you also have to buy back in a high market (boo hoo). The yipee and the boo-hoo cancel each other out and you're left with . . . all together now . . . the MARGIN! The funny thing is, the average available margins are usually WIDER, BIGGER, MORE ROBUST in down markets like this, and NARROWER, SMALLER and LESS ROBUST in high markets. Kinda contrarian, huh? Hee hee. EXACTLY!!!!

I have my 2009 Bud Williams Marketing School calendar done. See my calendar page and enroll today. The next school is Albuquerque in two weeks. NOW IS THE TIME!

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

We were flirting with limit-down in the fats a feeders a few minutes ago, and now it looks like they're going to try to take them higher on the day. This may be our "V bottom". Sure acts like a wash-out.

Fats have traded this morning at $92-$93 in the South. Here we go . . .

This is off yesterday's texas composite report. Covered auctions include: Abilene, Crockett, Emory, Industry, Milano & Pleasanton:

SELL 1225# fat heifers @ $92.00
BUY 780# top-quality STEERS @ $80.73
Return on the gain = $1.12
Excess profit per head with a $1.05 cost of gain = $31.15

Oh, my. You STEP UP from heifers to top-quality steers, cover a $1.05 cost of gain and MAKE $31.15 per head to boot. This truly is a market for the ages. I talk in the marketing school about how down markets, especially severe, panicky down markets actually present ENHANCED profit opportunity. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT. THIS IS IT.

Yep. Feeders are now up 50 on the day. Look out.

See my calendar page.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Another day in the best markets in the world. The only thing that makes me the least bit melancholy is the thought that it won't stay this good forever. Ah well, we just have to savor the sweetness while it is with us, and then years from now we will look back and take solace in the fact that we were able to relish and act while it was happening. Everyone else is cursing the blessing. Whoa. That sounds like a book title: "Cursing the Blessing: A Memoir of the 21st Century Cattle Industry". Dibbs! That's mine.

Cattle and feeders are up hard. Grains are mostly higher and corn is just trading steady. I strongly recommend long option packages on corn and feeders at this time, PARTICULARLY for cattle feeders. I got some long July corn option packages done for even money (zero net premium) a few minutes ago. Feeder packages require a little bit of premium, but that's okay.

There was some scattered cash trade at $93-$94 yesterday. Before you throw yourself out the window, just stop and say VERY slowly, "NINETY-THREE, NINETY-THREE, NINETY-THREE". Yeah. A few years ago you were having dreams about $93 fats. Now it's enough to make you want to kill yourself. The ONLY possible explanation for that is a lack of marketing skill combined with a sickening amount of leverage. Wanna take it to the next level? See my Calendar Page. Cheyenne is this weekend, Albuquerque later this month, and Colby, KS the first weekend in December. If you're waiting for someone to come along and beat you over the head, uh, yeah, this is it.

Finally, a word about Hell, per yesterday's post. As I looked at the prose, I realized that it could have been mis-read as "Ann doesn't think there is any such thing as Hell". Oh, no, no, no. Just the opposite. There is no such thing as Christianity without Hell. Hell is real. Hell is proof positive of God's infinite love for us. Without Hell, nothing, and I mean NOTHING makes any sense. So many times we hear people make the specious statement, "I just can't believe in a supposedly loving God who would send people to Hell". Well, I can't believe in a loving God who wouldn't. Hell means that we have a choice. Hell means that we are free. Hell means that God loves us and, get this, RESPECTS us SO MUCH that He will allow us to walk away. No shotgun weddings to The Lamb. Oh, no. The only true love is love that is FREELY GIVEN. We know that He has freely given all of Himself to us in love - that's the Cross. So, the only question is, will we freely give all of ourselves to Him? The only way that the gift of self can be true and free is if the option exists to say "no". That's the mercy of Hell. What if we say "no" to Him? Wouldn't a merciful God just snuff the naysayer out of existence rather than allow them to spend eternity in the tortuous nothingness of Hell? No, becuase the instant God snuffs even one human soul out of existence, then every human being becomes a meaningless pawn - little chessmen of zero intrinsic value. The universe, which He created for us so that we may know Him, becomes meaningless if we are chessmen. And, most importantly, Christ's death on the Cross becomes meaningless. So you see, Hell is a choice, our choice, a choice given to us by God, who is so infinitely in love with every one of us that if we really, really want to say "no", He will let us walk away.

How does the false teaching of "no Hell" manifest itself in today's society? It isn't how you would think. The problem isn't so much that there is no fear of Hell among most people. That is a negative motivation, and yes, it has it's place, but that's not the most important idea. The problem is the lack of the positive motivation. People, even religious people, seem not to understand or believe that God loves them and respects them, or at least the EXTENT to which God loves and respects them. If I understand that the Creator is in love with and infinitely respects little, flawed ME, then how can I not love and respect myself? How can I abuse myself with drugs, alcohol or unchastity if I know that God Himself will be infinitely heartbroken by my self-abuse? All of this is completely contingent on the existence of Hell. The best explanation of Hell I have ever read is C.S. Lewis' "The Great Divorce". See if you can figure out which character reflects you in the story.

Dismount pulpit.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

"Capitalism without Bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell."

As in, there is absolutely no such thing.

This is all so good I can hardly stand it. Empire building, empire building, empire building. For those of you who have attended a BWM School, now you understand the constant railing against leverage. Those with strong equity positions right now have the world at their feet. This market can literally be one of the best things to ever happen to you, IF you know what you are doing. Most don't, and many will fail. Unfair? Mmm. I don't think so. The competent will be rewarded, the incompetent will be punished, and at the end of the day, the North American Cattle Industry will be orders of magnitude stronger for it. If that is somehow "wrong", then let me never be right.

Mere minutes ago, Woodward, OK

SELL 771# top-quality yearling steers @ $101.17
BUY 721 top-quality steer CALVES @ $90.00
Return on the Gain = $2.62 per pound
Excess profit per head with a $1.50 cost of gain = $56.00 per head

A DOLLAR FIFTY COST OF GAIN.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

There is some cash trade in a range of $94 to $97. Fats and feeders are limit-down, putting the spot Oct fats at $95.57. Corn is also flirting with limit-down. Dec corn is at $4.55!! Um, mere weeks ago, it was at $7.50. What an amazing opportunity this is! And you know it has to be a great opportunity, because banks don't want people to buy cattle. Just fade the banks, y'all. Seriously. These markets are Empire Builders. If you are mystified by my contention, see my Calendar page. I still have 3 Schools left in 2008. As P in NM said below, if you could be taught marketing skill at exactly the same time as this market is offering profit on a gold platter, man, it just couldn't get much better than that - career-wise. Goose bumps. Totally.

I have to be in Kansas City tomorrow, but I wanted to get the Jukebox spinning right away. Since all human love is merely a signpost pointing toward Love Itself, namely The Trinity, many songs can be re-heard as either God singing to us, OR as us singing to God. Well, here's an example of a song that we all know that could very easily be YOU singing to Jesus. In fact, I dare say He would probably be quite tickled if you did just that- especially if you sound like Phil and Don Everly! This is the Everly Brothers singing Johnny Cash's "I Walk The Line". Lyrics below.

I keep a close watch on this heart of mine
I keep my eyes wide open all the time
I keep the ends out for the tie that binds
Because You're mine, I walk the line

I find it very, very easy to be true
I find myself alone when each day is through
YES, I'LL ADMIT THAT I'M A FOOL FOR YOU
Because You're mine, I walk the line

As sure as night is dark and day is light
I keep You on my mind both day and night
THE HAPPINESS I'VE KNOWN PROVES THAT IT'S RIGHT
Because You're mine, I walk the line

You've got a way to keep me on Your side
YOU GIVE ME CAUSE FOR LOVE THAT I CAN'T HIDE
For You I'd even try to turn the tide
Because You're mine, I walk the line

I keep a close watch on this heart of mine
I keep my eyes wide open all the time
I keep the ends out for the tie that binds
Because You're mine, I walk the line

That's a deeply theological song, right there.

A friend of the Blog sent this in - good stuff.

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Ann,

I've generally been in the investment business for 30 years. The first five years (roughly from when you were born 'til you were 5 :)!!!!!) were grim. On 8/13/1982 the Dow bottomed at 777. Interest rates on 5 year U.S. Treasury notes were over 12%; inflation 12%; unemployment high...but I don't remember any panic. Things turned around seemingly quickly with a real wake up call in '87 and several brokerage houses never recovered (L.F. Rothschild Unterberg Towbin, Kidder Peabody et al). Then scores of S&L's went toes up, commercial real estate crashed (I remember several brand new buildings in Denver that were completed and padlocked - no tenants for several years). Bye bye to Drexel Burnham and Soloman Brothers. Rock and roll with tech stocks. Boom! Bubble bursts. Now we're on the back end of 5-8 years of an overstimulated real estate market that covered up a lot of bad fundamentals...and here we are: a bunch of bad paper in financial institutions that had no incentive but to make the loans, take a fee, swap the risk, sell the servicing and do it over and over and over and over again. (When did you first hear the term "collateral default swap" - for me it was a month ago but I do insure municipal bonds with MBIA and Ambac both of whom almost went down last year.) Now we're holding our breath hoping Congress will "assist" with $700 billion which should calm down the markets. Really. Fundamentally I don't know what is going to change except the loss of flexibility to give tax relief and otherwise help the economy grow naturally. Real estate that was valued at the top and leveraged at 100+ percent has a long way to go to get back to even...might never happen. Personal income that is paying the loan is not going to grow. Guess we could change the amortization to 75 years...Lucky us (U.S.) - we'll own the paper.

I'm thinking all of this is a BIG billboard for your BWM seminars....it appears to me that money is lying around in fields and feedpens if we would only back up the trailer, open the gate up and walk it in...me included!!! I'm signing up for the Albuquerque school TODAY - I need a refresher (and a kick in the pants!)

P in NM

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen

Snifter clink to Monte in OK

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"If you purchased $1,000 in stock in Delta Airlines one year ago, you would have $49.00 today. If you purchased $1,000 in stock in AIG one year ago, you would have $33.00 today. If you purchased $1,000 in stock in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you would have $0.00 today. But, if you purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans in for a recycling refund, you would have $214.00 today. Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily & recycle. It is called the 401-Keg. A recent study found that the average American walks about 900 miles per year. Another study found that Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol per year. That means that, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon! Makes you proud to be an American!"